By Anton van Zyl and Thembi Siaga
Much to our own surprise, the cost of our Vhembe food basket dropped over the past month. Expectations were that prices would rise, but instead, the average basket of essential items fell by R88.59. The saving was largely due to price decreases in three key products: rice, onions and bread.
This is the fourth food basket survey we've conducted this year, with the first launched in March. The project was inspired by data journalism platform The Outlier and follows a simplified version of the methodology developed by the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group (PMBEJD), which monitors the cost of a 44-item basket commonly bought by women in low-income households.
Locally, we narrowed the basket to 20 essential items typically consumed by a family of seven over a month, working within a modest budget of around R3,500. Where possible, we used the PMBEJD's standard monthly quantities.
We visited 13 stores in three areas. In Louis Trichardt and Thohoyandou, we visited Boxer, Shoprite and Spar stores. In the Nzhelele area, we visited Shoprite, Spar, Boxer and OBC. All stores were surveyed on 2 July to ensure consistency.
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Onions and rice cheaper – but not chicken
In May, the average cost of the basket was R3,473.54. In July, it dropped to R3,384.95 – a saving of R88.59.
The decrease is primarily due to lower prices for rice, onions and bread. In May, 10kg of onions cost R154.55. By July, the price had dropped to R121.96 – though still above April's R111.97. Rice dropped to R169.99 for 10kg, compared to R207 in May and R192.02 in April.
Bread also became more affordable. A bundle of 50 loaves cost R510.04, down from R541.32 in May. April's price was slightly lower, at R503.94 – just over R10 per 600g loaf of brown bread.
However, some staples became more expensive. A 30kg bag of maize meal rose to R370.74, up from R356.42 in May (but still down from R386.44 in April). Frozen chicken portions (10kg) rose to R419.56, compared to R394.25 in May and R395.32 in April.
Elim still the cheapest
Once again, Elim was the cheapest place to shop, with the average food basket costing R3,294.17. Thohoyandou came in second at R3,361.10, followed by Nzhelele at R3,416.46. Louis Trichardt remains the most expensive, with the basket costing R3,468.07.
What stands out this month is the significant drop in prices in two areas since May. Nzhelele's average basket cost R3,663.25 in April. That has dropped by R246.79 to R3,416.46. In Louis Trichardt, the average in April was R3,517.14, which spiked to R3,691.52 in May before dropping by R223.45 to R3,468.07.
We usually avoid naming or comparing stores, but this may be unfair to those that work hard to keep prices low. That said, our survey is by no means perfect. Take tomatoes, for example: Boxer sells a different brand from Spar, and Spar sources much of its fresh produce locally – which may offer better prices, but with differences in quality.
That being said, Spar stores in all four areas were noticeably cheaper than their competitors during our survey. The Spar in Nzhelele had the lowest basket overall, at R3,080.64.
What is driving price changes?
The newspaper spoke to three store managers in the Elim area to understand the price movements better.
One manager said there was no imminent chicken shortage in South Africa, but the poultry industry was facing challenges. Avian influenza outbreaks have led to the culling of millions of birds and import restrictions from Brazil. "However, the South African Poultry Association assures that the industry has the capacity to compensate for any potential shortages," he said.
Maize production also declined in the 2023–24 season because of drought, but the overall harvest was still sufficient to meet local demand and support exports. Occasional localised supply issues or temporary stock shortages may affect pricing, he added.
On the onion front, the price drop between May and July reflects a recovery from earlier supply constraints. "The price in May was higher due to excessive rainfall in the Free State, where we get our stock," one manager said. "When it rains, it's difficult to get produce off the farms, which disrupts supply."
Another noted that prices of items such as potatoes often vary. "Potatoes are seasonal and are sometimes sourced from outside the region, which affects our costs – and what customers pay."
It pays to shop around
Another trend highlighted by the survey is the wide variation in prices for similar items. In Nzhelele, shoppers could save as much as R1,041.52 by choosing the cheapest available versions of each item across four stores, compared to the most expensive.
In Elim, the price gap was smaller – R765.53 – but still significant. Clearly, a little research can result in meaningful savings.
For next month's survey, we plan to include a few surprise items. We've noticed some stores adjusting prices in response to our published basket – a positive development for consumers. But to keep comparisons fair and unbiased, we'll add a few "unknowns" to the list.
Watch this space – and happy shopping!